The recent BRICS summit in New Delhi produced the usual language about a multipolar world. The detail worth noticing was smaller but more revealing: both Iran and the United Arab Emirates signed the New Delhi Declaration.
They sit on opposite sides of the Middle East conflict. Iran is fighting the United States and its allies. The UAE, a close security partner of Washington, has been targeted by Iran and has suspended trade with Tehran. Yet both governments still endorsed language calling for restraint, dialogue and the protection of global trade and energy flows. Read as a statement about the bloc’s coherence, that tells you little. Read as a statement about how countries behave when politics turn hostile, it tells you a good deal: they keep commercial channels open where they can.
South Africa’s interest lies in exactly that. This country has to sell more into the largest markets in the world, and cannot always afford to make that a function of who is aligned with whom.
That is not an argument for having no position — South Africa can hold a view on any conflict, and should be judged on applying it consistently. Nor is it an argument for trimming our positions to suit whichever market we are courting: a country that adjusts its principles by buyer is one no buyer can rely on. Trade policy should not be a by-product of foreign policy arguments, and market access should not be conditional on agreement, by anyone.
The numbers set the terms. South Africa exported roughly $117 billion of goods in 2025: around a third to Asia, just under 30% to the rest of Africa, just over a quarter to Europe, and under 9% to North America. That European and North American share carries our higher-value trade and the jobs to match, and defending it comes first. A 25% tariff on vehicles took effect in April 2025, and vehicle exports to the United States fell 83%, from 24,682 units in 2024 to 4,136 in 2025. AGOA now runs only to December 2026, with an extension not yet law. The answer is a sustained effort with Washington and deeper ties with Europe, while at the same time making sure the emerging markets are not neglected.
The second order of business is to stop depending on a single plant, model and buyer. South Africa has already secured market access for cherries into China, and China has eased conditions on our citrus. Egypt has opened its market to South African red meat. None of this is necessarily heading making headlines, but it is essential to the South African economy.
Intra-BRICS merchandise exports reached $1.17 trillion in 2024, 13 times their 2003 level, yet still only about 20% of South-South trade. For BRICS, keeping business moving is now the strategy. A grouping spanning Iran and the UAE, India and China, and countries with close Western ties will always contain obvious contradictions on politics. The fair test is whether disagreement is allowed to interrupt trade between members. South Africa should apply the same test to itself: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, oil is above $100 a barrel, and Washington has shown it will use trade and sanctions as policy instruments. Holding our established markets while opening new ones is available to us, and the two are not in competition.
The New Delhi Declaration will soon be forgotten. What matters is whether South Africa learns to walk and chew gum: retaining its established markets while expanding access to new ones.
– Victoria Tompkins
Account Manager