The term “polycrisis” is increasingly being used to describe the state of South Africa in 2026. This is unsurprising given the concurrent crises facing the country, including rising crime, growing unemployment and collapsing service delivery. When there are so many domestic issues demanding our attention, it can also blind us to the international polycrises that are looming, which we ignore at our peril.

The Economist recently warned that global oil and energy markets are “on the verge of disaster”, with the most severe global energy and oil shocks since the 1970s oil crisis potentially on the horizon. This is being driven by disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz.

South Africans can already see the impact of this conflict at the fuel pump, with diesel prices in particular rising to some of the highest levels the country has ever experienced. However, there is a real risk that, for a relatively small and open economy such as South Africa, this is only the first order effect. There is growing consensus that oil prices will continue rising sharply, driving higher global inflation, triggering food price shocks and increasing recession risks as a result of financial market instability.

What is perhaps underappreciated is that countries heavily reliant on dollar-based oil imports, while simultaneously carrying high levels of sovereign debt, may become unable to service those debt obligations, potentially leading to currency collapse or sovereign default. While South Africa is not yet at that level of peril, the lesson remains clear: in a world where governments, including our own, already carry high debt burdens and central banks have limited room to manoeuvre, fragile economies such as ours need to be clear minded in understanding this increasingly fraught global environment and making smart, forward-looking decisions.

In South Africa’s case, if the world now enters a prolonged period of energy insecurity, geopolitical fragmentation, structurally higher inflation and slower global growth, we simply cannot afford further policy own goals. The world cares little that we too often appear more interested in fighting the battles of the past than planning for the future.

If we persist with policies such as a ruinous NHI, increasingly rigid race-based economic frameworks, continued failures in service delivery and an inability to make people safe, then investment, already likely to be in short supply and increasingly cautious of higher risk developing markets, will simply bypass South Africa.

In the era of the polycrisis, business now more than ever needs to raise its voice and demand that government does all it can to offset the worst of the economic pain that may be coming. There must also be a credible and coherent plan to ensure that South Africa is positioned to weather the economic storm that may soon arrive on our shores, whether we are paying attention or not.

– Paul Boughey
Chief Executive Officer