The 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA), scheduled for Thursday, 12 February, comes as the Government of National Unity (GNU) seeks to shift from a phase of stabilisation towards durable economic expansion. With economic growth having remained persistently anaemic, the address need to go beyond rhetorical reassurance and rather set out credible signals of a a coherent reform agenda. The following eight areas are likely to serve as key markers against which the President’s address will be assessed.

1. Fiscal Rectitude and Accountability:

The 2026 address is expected to foreground the i2024–2029 Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP). Stakeholders are likely to listen for a renewed commitment to zero-based budgeting principles, under which departmental allocations are increasingly contingent on the achievement of defined service-level agreements. This approach is anticipated to be framed as a corrective to the long-standing trend of debt-servicing costs outpacing GDP growth, with the stabilisation of the debt-to-GDP ratio at 77.9% in the 2025/26 fiscal year presented as a near-term objective.

An emphasis on the Revenue Recovery Plan led by SARS is also expected. Improved tax compliance is likely to be cited as central to sustaining a primary budget surplus, projected to rise to 0.9% in 2025/26 and to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2028. This emerging fiscal space is expected to be positioned as critical to funding priority investment while ensuring that the 2026 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) remains anchored around debt stabilisation.

In addition, the address is likely to outline a more explicit “consequence management” framework aimed at municipal underspending. Observers may expect confirmation that Division of Revenue Act (DORA) allocations will be more tightly linked to performance, signalling a shift towards an audit-led governance model in which infrastructure grants are withheld from persistently non-performing municipalities. This is anticipated to be presented as a response to the estimated R30 billion in annual municipal capital underspending.

• Infrastructure Investment as a National Priority:

Infrastructure investment is expected to be framed as the central pillar of the government’s strategy for economic i growth and large-scale job creation. The President is likely to reiterate that more than R1 trillion has been allocated to public infrastructure over the medium term, with this commitment positioned as foundational to the renewal of road, rail, energy and water networks. By elevating infrastructure to a headline theme, the address is expected to signal that modernised network industries are viewed as a prerequisite for competitiveness and for attracting the fixed investment needed to lift GDP growth towards the 3% threshold.

A substantial portion of the speech is also expected to be devoted to the second wave of structural reforms under Phase II of Operation Vulindlela, particularly in freight logistics and water security. Stakeholders are likely to anticipate progress updates on the restoration of commuter rail corridors and the modernisation of port equipment, framed as tangible evidence that momentum built in 2025 is translating into operational improvements that lower the cost of doing business and enhance service reliability.

The President is also expected to acknowledge ongoing execution constraints, particularly at municipal level, and to outline a more coordinated approach across the three spheres of government. This emphasis on delivery is likely to be aimed at reassuring both domestic and international investors that government focus is shifting decisively towards the completion of high-impact, high-return projects capable of absorbing labour and stimulating regional economies.

• Port and Rail Reform:

The address is expected to signal a shift from policy alignment to implementation of the Freight Logistics Roadmap. In particular, observers are likely to listen for confirmation of progress towards the corporatisation of the National Ports Authority, following the completion of the technical assessment in late 2025. This reform is expected to be framed as a necessary step towards managing port and rail assets within a more integrated institutional framework, ahead of the final detailed plan scheduled for March 2026.

An update on the introduction of open access to the freight rail network is also anticipated. The President is likely to note that the selection process for private train operating companies has been completed, with 11 firms meeting the required standards. These operators are expected to be presented as augmenting state capacity in pursuit of the target of moving 250 million tonnes of freight by rail annually by 2029.

The modernisation of ports through strategic partnerships is also expected to feature prominently. In particular, the 25-year concession for Durban Container Terminal Pier 2, effective from 1 January 2026, is likely to be highlighted as a flagship example. The partnership is expected to unlock more than R11 billion in infrastructure and technology investment, with capacity projected to rise to 2.8 million TEUs and crane productivity to 28 moves per hour. These improvements are anticipated, correctly, to be framed as essential to lowering logistics costs and enhancing export competitiveness.

• From Load-Shedding to Cost-Cutting:

Following the stabilisation of the national grid in 2025, the address is expected to formalise a shift from crisis management towards long-term energy sustainability. A central feature is likely to be the announcement of the finalised Integrated Energy Plan (IEP), positioned as the definitive roadmap for South Africa’s energy mix through to 2050. The plan is expected to provide clarity on coal decommissioning timelines alongside the integration of approximately 50 GW of new renewable capacity over the next decade.

Progress on Eskom’s unbundling is also expected to feature, particularly the operational independence of the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA). The President is likely to explain how this entity underpins the development of a competitive electricity market by enabling direct trading between independent power producers and large customers. Observers may also expect reference to forthcoming legal and regulatory measures to address the municipal electricity debt crisis, which continues to constrain effective distribution and rooftop solar uptake.

Lowering the cost of electricity is likely to be emphasised as a key factor in supporting industrialisation and mining expansion. High tariffs are expected to be characterised as a drag on competitiveness and job creation, with improved market competition and utility efficiency presented as pathways to more predictable and affordable pricing.

• Local Government Service Delivery and Reform:

The President is expected to characterise 2026 as a year of decisive intervention to restore basic municipal services, acknowledging that service delivery has effectively collapsed in parts of the country. The deployment of technical teams from Eskom, SANRAL and the Department of Water and Sanitation to failing municipalities is likely to be presented as an emergency stabilisation measure while local capacity is rebuilt.

A revised municipal funding model is also expected to be outlined, moving away from unconditional transfers towards performance-based allocations. The Metro Trading Services Reform Programme, providing R55 billion in incentive-based funding for the eight largest metros, is likely to be highlighted. Access to these funds is expected to be explicitly linked to verifiable improvements in billing, revenue collection and the reduction of non-revenue water and electricity losses.

Confirmation is also expected that municipalities will be legally required to ring-fence revenue from electricity and water sales from the 2026/27 financial year. This reform is anticipated to be framed as a mechanism to prevent infrastructure neglect and to enforce professional standards in senior municipal management, with continued non-compliance likely to trigger intervention under Section 139 of the Constitution.

The address is also expected to address the R100 billion municipal debt burden affecting the electricity and water sectors. National Treasury oversight of standardised prepaid billing systems in defaulting municipalities is likely to be presented as a key component of restoring financial sustainability.

• Water Crisis:

The transition of the water sector towards a utility-based model is expected to be formalised through the full operationalisation of the National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency (NWRIA) by April 2026. The agency is likely to be positioned as a vehicle for consolidating fragmented entities and mobilising up to R30 billion annually from capital markets to address maintenance backlogs and bulk infrastructure constraints.

Water security in Gauteng is expected to receive particular attention, with acknowledgement that the system is operating at its limits. Accelerated delivery of Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project is likely to be highlighted, alongside updated construction milestones for the Polihali Dam. The completion of key internal projects, including the refurbishment of Hursthill reservoirs and Commando system upgrades, is also expected to be referenced as critical to stabilising supply to Johannesburg.

Finally, the President is expected to signal a more stringent maintenance and enforcement regime aimed at reducing non-revenue water losses, including stricter requirements for municipalities to ring-fence water revenue and professionalise technical functions.

• Policy Certainty:

The address is expected to provide clarity on the legal and implementation status of the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act. In particular, stakeholders are likely to look for confirmation that private medical schemes will continue to offer comprehensive cover during Phase 2 of implementation (2026–2028), pending the full operational readiness of the NHI Fund, and the finalisation of a number of legal challenges to NHI.

Regulatory detail on the proposed R100 billion Transformation Fund is also anticipated. The President is expected to outline the governance structure of the Special Purpose Vehicle, including private-sector representation on its board and independent audit requirements, to address concerns around capital misallocation and or corruption

More broadly, the address is likely to acknowledge the need for an assessment of the cumulative economic impact of major reforms under current fiscal conditions.

• Crime, Corruption, and the Rule of Law:

The President is expected to announce further progress towards an intelligence-led policing model, shifting SAPS towards proactive crime prevention. Expansion of the Economic Infrastructure Task Teams is likely to be highlighted, with organised extortion networks framed as a major threat to economic recovery.

An update on the professionalisation of the public service is also anticipated, including progress towards the operationalisation of the Office for Public Integrity in 2026. The enrolment of State Capture Commission cases and targets for finalising high-profile prosecutions are expected to be cited as indicators of accountability.

Finally, the address is likely to outline measures aimed at restoring trust in law enforcement, including the implementation of lifestyle audits for senior officers and those in sensitive procurement and intelligence roles. If these areas are addressed effectively, SONA26 would set South Africa on a path to stronger economic growth and expedite development.

Bottom line

If these themes are addressed with sufficient clarity and credibility, SONA 2026 is likely to be interpreted as a meaningful signal of intent to place South Africa on a firmer growth and development trajectory.